jacobduplessis

November 18, 2024

In the annals of government boondoggles, Newark Liberty International Airport’s AirTrain project has carved out its own special place. Initially pegged at $2.05 billion — an already staggering price for 2.5 miles of rail — this “essential” upgrade has now blossomed into a $3.5 billion financial black hole. That’s a 70% overrun, and they’re just getting started.

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the bi-state bureaucracy famous for its penchant for massive budgets and minimal accountability, voted this week to shovel another $1.45 billion into the project. Why? Because, as they say, “inflation.” And delays. And — get this — “risk premiums.” Translation: taxpayers are footing the bill for every conceivable misstep, from pandemic-induced inertia to supply chain chaos.

The Pandemic Made Us Do It

Yes, The Pandemic. That convenient scapegoat for every delayed, over-budget, underwhelming infrastructure project since 2020. Apparently, the virus not only caused supply chain woes but also snuck into the Port Authority’s boardroom, convincing them that every contractor should charge double.

Jim Heitmann, the Port Authority’s COO, lamented the “unprecedented rate of inflation” during the project’s delay. Never mind that inflation has been moderating for months now. The real culprit here is plain old project mismanagement, wrapped up in fancy buzzwords to deflect scrutiny.

Mega-Project, Mega-Excuses

What do you get when you combine unchecked public funds with no real accountability? You get a 2.5-mile elevated rail line costing more than the GDP of some small nations. The AirTrain will connect terminals and transportation hubs — a nice idea in theory. But at $1.4 billion per mile, one has to wonder: Are they laying tracks inlaid with gold? Perhaps they’re constructing a scenic monorail that detours through Manhattan penthouses?

Even the procurement process is a drawn-out slog. Eighty percent of the contracts have been awarded, but construction will not begin until 2025. By the time the AirTrain is ready in 2030, self-flying taxis might make it obsolete.

Deferred Dreams and Toll Hikes

But don’t worry — this isn’t just about the AirTrain. The Port Authority will “offset” these ballooning costs by deferring spending on other projects, like the PATH rail extension. Translation: kick the can down the road, leaving future commuters and taxpayers to deal with the fallout.

In the meantime, motorists will feel the squeeze. That proposed 25-cent toll hike on bridges and tunnels? Just a teaser. After all, someone has to fund the ever-expanding Port Authority budget, now a tidy $9.4 billion for 2025. And don’t expect the bleeding to stop there — once the inevitable “unexpected challenges” hit, the AirTrain’s price tag could easily breach $4 billion.

Lessons Unlearned

This isn’t the Port Authority’s first rodeo with runaway costs. Just last year, the JFK modernization project swelled by $1 billion to nearly $4 billion. The excuses were the same: inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, and a general shrug of inevitability. It seems the playbook for these projects is simple: lowball the initial cost, delay as long as possible, and then cry “unforeseen circumstances” when the price skyrockets.

The Gravy Train Rolls On

At this point, it’s clear that the Port Authority’s infrastructure projects are less about serving the public and more about lining the pockets of contractors, consultants, and bureaucrats. Tutor Perini Corp. and O&G Industries Inc., the joint venture tasked with building the AirTrain, must be popping champagne. Their $1.2 billion contract is the kind of government gravy that makes shareholders giddy.

Meanwhile, the rest of us are left wondering: How can a 2.5-mile train system cost more than entire metro rail networks in other countries? And more importantly, who will hold these officials accountable when (not if) the final price tag eclipses even today’s inflated projection?

The Final Stop

By 2030, when the AirTrain finally opens (assuming no further delays), the project will stand as a monument to everything wrong with America’s infrastructure spending: a shiny, overpriced toy that took a decade to build, funded by ever-increasing tolls and fees. Welcome to the future of public transit: slower, pricier, and infinitely more frustrating.

All aboard the Grift Express. Next stop: taxpayer despair.

October 29, 2025

Let me share what I've learned from analyzing 1,330 Private Equity deals over the last 12 months (ending June 2025), totaling $90.3 billion in the Construction & Engineering space.

The Money Is Real – And It's Massive

Here's the headline: AI-focused construction startups are raising 3.2x more capital per round than traditional construction tech companies. That's not a typo. In Q2 2025 alone, we saw $3.96 billion flow into construction tech, with 68% going to AI-enabled solutions.

This isn't just Silicon Valley hype. The construction industry is a $13 trillion global market that's been stuck with 1% annual productivity growth for two decades while the rest of the economy grows at 2.8%. VCs finally understand that whoever cracks this problem will capture enormous value.

The Big Players Are All In

What really caught my attention is who's writing checks. We're seeing three distinct investor types:

Tier 1 Tech Funds like Khosla Ventures, General Catalyst, and Insight Partners are leading platform plays with $15-50M checks. They're not interested in point solutions—they want companies that can transform entire workflows.

Construction Specialists like Brick & Mortar Ventures and Fifth Wall bring deep industry knowledge and are writing $5-20M checks. These folks understand the real pain points because they've lived them.

Corporate VCs from Cemex, Caterpillar, and Autodesk are strategically investing $3-15M in companies that align with their product roadmaps. They offer something money can't buy: customer validation and distribution.

Five Technologies Dominating Investment

After analyzing all these deals, five technology clusters are capturing 87% of the capital:

1. Autonomous equipment – Bedrock Robotics just raised $80M for retrofitting existing machinery

2. Predictive analytics – Using AI to prevent delays and cost overruns

3. Workflow automation – Trunk Tools raised $40M automating document workflows

4. Computer vision – Buildots raised $45M for site progress tracking

5. Supply chain optimization – Finally solving the materials and logistics nightmare

What This Means for Seamview

The market is moving exactly where we predicted. The top 20 funded companies represent 74% of total investment – investors want comprehensive platforms, not features. They want the “Bloomberg Terminal for Construction” that we're building.

The shift to Series B and later-stage rounds (now 72% of capital deployed) shows the market is maturing. Early experiments are over. VCs want companies with proven product-market fit that can scale.

Geographic concentration is real – 68% of funding goes to US companies, 14% to Israel. But the opportunity is global, especially in markets like South Africa, where we have deep roots.

The Inflection Point Is Now

We're at a critical moment. The construction industry, unchanged in many ways for decades, is about to transform. The convergence of AI, cloud computing, and industry readiness has created perfect conditions.

The sovereign wealth funds are starting to pay attention – Mubadala, PIF, and Temasek are writing $20-100M checks because they see construction tech as critical infrastructure for national development.

My Take

Having worked on billion-dollar construction projects — from TSMC fabs to the Riyadh Metro —I've seen every pain point this industry has to offer. The VCs are finally understanding what we've known all along: construction isn't just ripe for disruption – it's desperate for it.

The winners won't be those building clever features. They'll be platforms that understand construction's fundamental challenge: organizing massive flows of information, money, and materials in accordance with contractual obligations. That's why we built SeamCodes at Seamview – to create a universal language for construction data, just like Bloomberg created for financial markets.

The $8.7 billion flowing into our space isn't just investment – it's validation. The industry that built the world is finally getting the technology it deserves.

And we're just getting started.